AKRON, Ohio, - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. said Wednesday that its replacement tire shipments in North America have lagged the industry so far this year, prompting one analyst to cut his rating and sending its stock down almost 9 percent. In a monthly update, Goodyear said its shipments of consumer replacement tires were "almost flat" for January and February although industry shipments rose 8 percent during that time. Shipments of commercial replacement tires, while up, also fell below the industry's 14 percent increase. Goodyear said its sales are lagging the industry due to the timing of wholesale price increases. The company saw its December sales rise before a Jan. 1 price increase. Its competitors, which are increasing prices in March and April, did not receive a similar boost until January and February. It also blamed weaker-than-expected retail demand as well as a change in its distribution model, which eliminated discounts offered to some large customers. Goodyear shares were down $2.22 at $25.73, a drop of nearly 8 percent, after falling to $25.50 earlier Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company's update prompted J.P. Morgan analyst David Bradley to cut both his earnings estimates and his investment rating. Bradley had upgraded Goodyear to a "long-term buy" on Feb. 11 on expectations that the company would benefit from improving industry fundamentals. However, he reduced that rating Wednesday to "market perform." "It is now apparent that Goodyear is not seeing much, if any, benefit from these trends," he wrote. "In fact, things appear to be getting worse, not better." He noted that tire recalls by Ford Motor Co. and Bridgestone Corp.'s Firestone unit are winding down and changes in Goodyear's distribution model have resulted in fewer orders, at least temporarily. Bradley also cited currency losses in South America and declines in industry commercial truck tire shipments in Europe.

He reduced his first-quarter estimate to a loss of 35 cents from a loss of 5 cents. He reduced his other quarterly estimates, resulting in a projected 2002 loss of 5 cents a share instead of an 84 cent gain. Goodyear, based in Akron, Ohio, declined to comment on Bradley's estimates. It had previously said that substantial production cuts in the fourth quarter would hurt first-quarter operating income by about $80 million. The company lost 2 cents a share in last year's first quarter. Goodyear said shipments to the major automakers in North America through February were better than average. Industry shipments of consumer tires rose 10 percent while those of commercial tires were down 17 percent. It said currencies revalued in Brazil and Mexico were more than offset by devaluations in Argentina and Venezuela.